Max Verstappen’s loyalty to Red Bull has been a cornerstone of his Formula 1 career, but former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya believes the Dutchman may soon “jump ship” to Mercedes, especially if Red Bull falters under the upcoming 2026 regulation changes.
Montoya’s Bold Prediction
Montoya, who raced for Williams and McLaren in his F1 career, has predicted that Verstappen, despite his public declarations of commitment to Red Bull, could be tempted by Mercedes if the team’s new in-house powertrains fail to deliver.
“I think Max Verstappen will end up leaving in a couple of years. He won’t leave the sport. It’s the ultimate. He’ll leave Red Bull,” Montoya said to Instant Casino.
Red Bull is venturing into uncharted territory by developing its own power units in collaboration with Ford for the 2026 season. This move comes as F1 introduces sweeping changes to both chassis and power unit regulations.
“If Red Bull comes with the powertrains and it’s not where it needs to be, is Max going to be happy running tenth? No. And if Mercedes comes with an offer, he is going to jump ship straight away,” Montoya added.
Verstappen’s Public Stance
Max Verstappen has repeatedly expressed his desire to remain at Red Bull for the entirety of his career. The Dutchman’s contract with the team runs until the end of 2028, and he has often spoken about the strong relationships he has built within the team.
“It would be very beautiful if you just could stay with one team and race there forever,” Verstappen told the PA News Agency. “That is the target.”
Despite his words, Montoya suspects conversations with Mercedes may already be happening behind the scenes.
“Publicly he would say, ‘No way,’ but internally I would be surprised if a conversation was not going on,” Montoya speculated.
Mercedes: A Viable Option?
Mercedes has been undergoing a transition of its own. In 2025, the team will feature teenage prodigy Kimi Antonelli alongside George Russell, following Lewis Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari. Russell’s contract, however, expires at the end of 2025, potentially leaving a seat open just as Verstappen might consider his options.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has previously expressed admiration for Verstappen, fueling speculation that the team would be interested in securing his services if the opportunity arose.
The 2026 Wild Card
The 2026 season is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in F1. Red Bull’s success hinges on its ability to adapt to the new regulations, particularly as it navigates the challenges of being both a constructor and engine supplier.
Montoya’s theory is rooted in the belief that Verstappen’s competitive nature will not tolerate a drop in performance:
“It’s very easy to be loyal when you’re winning races. If I was in his shoes, for sure I would be looking at that already.”
Conclusion
While Verstappen has publicly dismissed the idea of leaving Red Bull, Montoya’s prediction adds a layer of intrigue to the F1 driver market. The combination of 2026 regulation changes, Red Bull’s powertrain gamble, and Mercedes’ future driver lineup could create the perfect storm for a seismic shift in Verstappen’s career.
For now, Verstappen remains the undisputed king of Red Bull, but the allure of new challenges and the uncertainty of the future may ultimately shape his next move.
